I need to do strategic scenario planning for my business. Here's the context:

**Business:** [Brief description — industry, size, main revenue sources, geographic market]
**Strategic question:** [The decision or direction you're evaluating]
**Time horizon:** [How far ahead — 1 year, 3 years, 5 years]
**Key uncertainties:** [2-3 things you're unsure about — market growth, competitor moves, regulation, technology shifts]

Build three scenarios:

**Scenario 1 — Optimistic:** Things go better than expected. What does this look like? Be specific: revenue trajectory, market position, team size, competitive landscape. Don't make it a fantasy — make it a realistic best case.

**Scenario 2 — Base case:** The most likely trajectory given current trends. What stays the same? What changes gradually? Where are the slow-building pressures?

**Scenario 3 — Pessimistic:** Things go worse than expected. Again, not a catastrophe — a realistic downside. What breaks first? What cascades?

For EACH scenario, provide:

- **Key assumptions** — What has to be true for this scenario to play out?
- **Early warning signals** — What would I see in the next 90 days that tells me this scenario is becoming reality? Give me specific, observable indicators — not vague trends.
- **Recommended actions** — If this scenario materializes, what should I do? What should I stop doing? What should I accelerate?
- **The strategic bet** — What's the one investment or decision that pays off in this scenario but not in the others?

Then: **The robust strategy** — What actions make sense across ALL three scenarios? These are the no-regret moves I should make regardless of which future materializes.